Prediction means having to analyze future outcomes of a specific event , in the terms of natural disaster there have been many weaknesses to do such action. First of all, we need to consider that Natural disaster is an inevitable and catastrophic event originating from geological processes, the event itself is detrimental to an area’s economy and ecosystem. Consequently, geologists attempt to predict such events to alleviate the burden of impact (Science Direct). Due to limitations in technology, this poses a lot of difficulty for geologists to predict natural disasters. During the buildup of these events, every natural disaster has its own distinct behavior from one another due to this factor this forces geologists to innovate different tools for different natural disasters. However, in the millennial era technological advancement is progressing at a fast rate, which opens up the chance of predicting natural disaster shortly.
Prediction of natural disaster necessitates much funding and research builds into it. Predicting the severity and catastrophic brought to a specific event needed algorithms and “obvious trends” from past related disasters. Geologists study this by implementing continuous surveillance along with radar systems to detect seismic waves allocated deep within earth’s core. Thus, they compared live data with past records along with the aid of artificial intelligence they were able to deduce the pattern of natural disasters that will occur. Although the basic template of the solution might be promising, on the contrary it is bound with the unique trends of the events itself. Natural disasters are unexpected and do not follow a specific trend. Commonly, geologists nowadays are intrigued in predicting the indispensable and highly demanded volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. However both disasters have different behavior from one another, predicting volcanic eruptions is much easier due to the long build up and symptoms of disaster such as earthquakes, concentration of gas released, and heat flow before the eruption occurred. While on the other hand, earthquakes could be more complicated as the seismic waves travel fast enough to produce the slip which makes it really hard to predict when that energy buildup will occur and be released. In other words, earthquakes are more sudden and show no signs before they happen while most volcanic eruptions show signs and alarming events before they occur (Predictions & Preventions)
As reported during the mount. Taal volcanic eruption, the geologist and scientist situated within range were able to predict that the volcano will erupt “within days or hours' '. The buildup started with the mountain spewing lava which helps officials alerting people in affected areas, which then resulted in the evacuation of 8,000 people. This suspicion of the eruption was caused due to the volcanic activity being dormant for years. Additionally they monitored various trends because of this suspicion, which includes earthquakes activities, emission of gases, and inflation or deflation of the volcano. If the geologist observed the acceleration of gases or tremors nearby, they would start to alert officials for warning (BBC). Moreover before the eruption occurred, the Philippines department of science and technology were able to alert officials from various departments to standby and be prepared when an eruption occurred. Certainly this alert can be made due to buildups of factors mentioned above including the intensity of tremors and emission of gases (Philipine department of science and technology). Not only forecasting through natural events, owing to the fact that technology is progressing rapidly, the scientists in Pasadena Institute of technology were able to develop digital cameras to predict volcanic eruptions. The digital camera was used to monitor volcanic plumes and also light that bounces off water droplets that they contain. Scientists there are trying to develop and refine the digital cameras which could be used to forecast volcanic eruptions real time(Phys.org)
Picture 1: Geologist try to predict earthquakes (https://whyfiles.org/031volcano/3.html)
However when it comes to predicting earthquakes, geologists are pessimistic that such events can be predicted in the near future due to the fact that the slip that happened during the event happened really fast. Thus, this factor makes it challenging to predict earthquakes. As mentioned on the United States Geological Survey, it is quite challenging to estimate the precise framework of the event due to factors that occurred at a fast pace. As an institution, they believed that people who claimed they could predict earthquakes can be falsely true. This is because earthquakes are not based on scientific evidence and earthquakes are part of scientific processes. Moreover, they do not define or take into account elements including date, location and magnitude. People predict earthquakes at a great margin and based the events through a general statement (USGS). On the contrary, despite its pessimistic faith. Geologist from Los Alamos, Paul Johnson, believed that he will be able to predict earthquakes in the near future. Alongside his co-partner from University of California, he was able to match some algorithms of earthquake pattern and integrate such refined equations into artificial intelligence. They were able to replicate the model from the lab and implement it on Vancouver Island. Which they will attempt to predict earthquakes at the designated site(Quanta Magazine)
Picture 2: Paul Johnson at Los Alamos Insitute predicting earthquakes (https://www.lanl.gov/news-archive/science-columns/science-on-the-hill/2016/science-on-the-hill-can-we-someday-predict-earthquakes.php )
As a catastrophic event, natural disaster is a unique type of event where each and every type has its own distinctions to one another. I believed the easiest predictions in present time would be predicting volcanic eruptions. This is due to the fact that there are many factors that could be utilized to predict such events. The climax of the event also happened through builds up which could take hours or months in common cases. Although, there are several outliers but commonly volcanic eruptions happened through long periods of build ups.
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